Metabolically Healthy Obesity, Transition to Metabolic Syndrome, and Cardiovascular Risk.

BACKGROUND: Debate over the cardiometabolic risk associated with metabolically healthy obesity (MHO) continues. Many studies have investigated this relationship by examining MHO at baseline with longitudinal follow-up, with inconsistent results. OBJECTIVES: The authors hypothesized that MHO at baseline is transient and that transition to metabolic syndrome (MetS) and duration of MetS explains heterogeneity in incident cardiovascular disease (CVD) and all-cause mortality. METHODS: Among 6,809 participants of the MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis) the authors used Cox proportional hazards and logistic regression models to investigate the joint association of obesity (≥30 kg/m2) and MetS (International Diabetes Federation consensus definition) with CVD and mortality across a median of 12.2 years. We tested for interaction and conducted sensitivity analyses for a number of conditions. RESULTS: Compared with metabolically healthy normal weight, baseline MHO was not significantly associated with incident CVD; however, almost one-half of those participants developed MetS during follow-up (unstable MHO). Those who had unstable MHO had increased odds of CVD (odds ratio [OR]: 1.60; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.14 to 2.25), compared with those with stable MHO or healthy normal weight. Dose response for duration of MetS was significantly and linearly associated with CVD (1 visit with MetS OR: 1.62; 95% CI: 1.27 to 2.07; 2 visits, OR: 1.92; 95% CI: 1.48 to 2.49; 3+ visits, OR: 2.33; 95% CI: 1.89 to 2.87; p value for trend <0.001) and MetS mediated approximately 62% (44% to 100%) of the relationship between obesity at any point during follow-up and CVD. CONCLUSIONS: Metabolically healthy obesity is not a stable or reliable indicator of future risk for CVD. Weight loss and lifestyle management for CVD risk factors should be recommended to all individuals with obesity.