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OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to investigate the relationship of BMI trajectories from childhood with subclinical kidney damage (SKD) in midlife, a surrogate measure for chronic kidney disease. METHODS: The study followed up 1,442 participants from the 1985 Australian Schools Health and Fitness Survey who were between 7 and 15 years old at the time the survey was conducted and who had BMI measurements in childhood and at least two follow-ups in adulthood. Measures of kidney function for participants 36 to 50 years old were also included. Latent class growth mixture modeling was used to identify the BMI trajectories. Log-binomial regression determined the associations of BMI trajectories with SKD defined as either 1) an estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) of 30 to 60 mL/min/1.73 m2 or 2) an eGFR > 60 mL/min/1.73 m2 with a urine albumin-creatinine ratio ≥ 2.5 mg/mmol (males) or 3.5 mg/mmol (females), adjusting for childhood age, sex, and duration of follow-up. RESULTS: Relative to the persistently low trajectory (n = 534, 37.0%), being in higher BMI trajectories was associated with greater risk of SKD in midlife (relative risk [RR] = 1.89, 95% CI = 1.10-3.25 for progressing to moderate [n = 633, 43.9%]; RR = 1.91, 95% CI = 0.95-3.81 for progressing to moderate/high [n = 194, 13.5%]; RR = 2.86, 95% CI = 1.03-7.99 for progressing to high/very high [n = 39, 2.7%]; and RR = 2.47, 95% CI = 0.77-7.94 for adult-onset high [n = 35, 2.4%]). CONCLUSIONS: Participants with increasing BMI trajectories from childhood had an increased risk of SKD in midlife.

Original publication




Journal article


Obesity (Silver Spring)

Publication Date





1058 - 1066


Adolescent, Adult, Age Factors, Asymptomatic Diseases, Australia, Body Mass Index, Body-Weight Trajectory, Child, Exercise, Female, Glomerular Filtration Rate, Humans, Kidney Function Tests, Longitudinal Studies, Male, Middle Aged, Renal Insufficiency, Chronic, Risk Factors